Key Insights:
- On Monday, XRP resumed the trend upward, rising by 0.34% to end the day at $0.38615.
- Bullish sentiment from the broader crypto market delivered support as investors await several rulings from the SEC v Ripple case.
- The technical indicators are bullish, with XRP sitting above the 50-day EMA, signaling a return to $0.45.
On Monday, XRP rose by 0.34%. Partially reversing a 2.59% loss from Sunday, XRP ended the day at $0.38615. Despite the bearish session, XRP revisited $0.40 for the second time in three sessions.
A bullish start to the day saw XRP rally to an early high of $0.40603 before hitting reverse. XRP broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3940 and the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4031.
However, the reversal saw XRP slide to a late morning low of $0.3770. Finding support at the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3778, XRP retested R1 before easing back.
XRP Trails the Broader Market as Investors Await Court Rulings
It was a quiet Monday session, with no updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case to provide direction. Optimism toward the outcome supported an early return to $0.40. However, several Court rulings are pending that leave investors on a more cautious footing, reflected in the pullback from $0.40.
Investors await rulings ahead of a final filing on Wednesday when all parties and non-parties must file oppositions to the non-party Motions to Seal. While the Court may hold back from delivering any rulings until after the filings, the Court rulings could come at any time.
Among the pending rulings is a decision on the SEC motion to redact content from the William Hinman speech-related documents. Another Court ruling against the SEC could force the SEC into a settlement.
As background, former SEC Director of the Division of Corporation Finance William Hinman said that Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are not securities. The contentious issue with the speech related to Hinman’s connection with Simpson Thacher, which is part of a group that promotes Enterprise Ethereum. After leaving the SEC, Hinman returned to Simpson Thacher.
Overnight, Amicus Curiae attorney John Deaton talked about the likely influences of the Amicus briefs on the SEC’s bid to classify XRP as a security. Deaton shared a section of his filing, saying,
“The SEC literally claims XRP itself was, is, and always will be a security.”
Adding,
“The scope of the SEC’s Howey argument has become so stretched that it is truly indefinable, in space or in time.”
Today, investors should look for any SEC v Ripple case updates. A lack of updates would leave XRP in the hands of the broader crypto market. US economic indicators and corporate earnings will draw interest in the afternoon session.
XRP Price Action
At the time of writing, XRP was down 1.18% to $0.38160. A mixed start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.38854 before falling to a low of $0.37937.
Technical Indicators
XRP needs to move through the $0.3897 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.4025 and the Monday high of $0.40603. A return to $0.40 would signal a bullish session. However, the broader crypto market would need to support a breakout.
In the case of an extended rally, XRP would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.4188. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $0.4478.
Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3734 in play. However, barring an extended sell-off, XRP should avoid sub-$0.37 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3607. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $0.3317.
Court rulings on the SEC v Ripple case would remove the influence of the Support and Resistance levels.
The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bullish signal.
At the time of writing, XRP sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.37602. The 50-day EMA moved away from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling away from the 200-day EMA. The signals were bullish.
A hold above the 50-day EMA ($0.37602) would support a breakout from R1 ($0.4025) to target R2 ($0.4188). However, a fall through the 50-day EMA ($0.37602) would signal a shift in investor sentiment and bring the Major Support Levels into view.
